4.20.2009

PROSPECT INDONESIA CAPITAL MARKET 2009

By: Jhonson A. Sutanto

Subrime mortgage crisis in the Medio 2007 that occurred in the country uncle Sam has triggered a global economic crisis. Peak, in September 2008 some of the giant financial institutions announced bancruptcy. In addition to the United States, the crisis also occurred in the area of Europe. In the UK, Institute of Sekaliber Northern Rock is also in the verge of bankruptcy and force the British government to do the financial rescue of ₤ 28 billion. The fail of big names in the Financial Industry has caused tremendous panic among investors, making stock Dow Jones index had fallen sharply. If in early 2008, Dow Jones index was at 13,056. Then, on 28 October 2008 due to not enthusiastic market, Dow Jones index to fall to 8175 levels or 37% corrected. The same also overwrite the Nasdaq index in early 2008 are still on the range in 2600, on October 24 had fallen sharply in 2008 to 11,552 or 40% corrected.

The same thing also happened in Japan, the Nikkei index at the beginning of the year is in the 14600 level had fallen to 7621 levels on 28 October 2008 or 47% corrected. Similarly Hang Seng index, Hong Kong fell from 27,500 to 12,380 level or drop 55%. What about the stock exchange Indonesia?? Obviously, it is also the fate befall Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI). In line with the falling Dow Jones, stock prices, shares in the BEI also be seen from the decrease in the combined stock price index (JCI). IHSG, which in the beginning of 2008 to enter the on gold period level of 2830, due to investor panic index also fall to the level of 1174 on 30 October 2008 or 59% have been corrected.

Fall in the exchange country had the government seize attention and need to look to immediately take steps to calm markets anticipating that the panic that is close to the exchange for 3 days and the auto rejection of 10% for the top and bottom as anticipating a decline in the index. Moreover, the government also provided funding of Rp4 trillion national budget to be out of stock buy-back shares owned.

Stock Exchange Performance in Indonesia

Before the storms pound exchange crisis Indonesia in early September 2008, the performance can be said Bei "shiny." IHSG show positive growth, from 392 level in 2001 became 1805 in 2006 and again increased to 2745 or in 2007, growing 52%. IHSG in line with the increase, the value of market capitalization increased by an average of 121% per year, a value that reflects the passion that extraordinary investment. Stock value transaction which also describes the sac income from the Securities Traders Broker (PPE) until October 2008, has reached Rp926 trillion, almost equal the value of transactions in 2007 of Rp1.050 trillion. This means the stock is still skittish, the average daily transaction record of Rp4, 8 trillion per day. The decline in the index tend to be more psychological factors come from investors in the value of saving investment. This Conditions so clearly visible that some of BEI emitten with good fundamentals (financial and operational performance) also did not escape the decline of stock prices.

Performance of Reksadana

Meanwhile relieve conditions that occur in a few mutual funds performance. Global financial crisis on the blow decrease IHSG does not necessarily shatter mutual funds performance. Overall performance of mutual funds decreased, Net Asset Value (nab) the highest of Rp97 trillion in May 2008 declined to be Rp72 trillion on 10 October 2008 or 26% corrected. NAB the decrease due to the decrease in product IHSG especially mutual funds stock mutual funds or a mix and not simply a case of redemption. Based on the data of the Capital Market & Financial Institutions (Bapepam-LK) in the September 2008 level of redemption Rp6, 5 trillion, while the level of subscription Rp7, and 1 trillion on 10 October 2008 redemption of Rp1, 7 trillion, and the subscription of Rp1, 3 trillion .

Indonesia Capital Market Prospects 2009

In the midst of global financial market conditions that are not certain that up to now there are no signs at the financial crisis ends soon, it is not easy to answer the questions when stock prices decline of touch point behind. Even a great analyst, also will never know for certain when stock prices have reached the bottom price. However, capital markets will never be abandoned investors, like coins always have a different side. When a number of investors pull out on the market with market assumptions are not good and stock prices continue to decline, will be the opportunity for other investor-oriented long-term to buy stocks-the stock is considered cheap. So, panic and a number of investor attitudes irrasionality when prices go down will be a blessing for investors, the other easygoing and long-term oriented.

The next question, how the capital market fate Indonesia in 2009? Based on the analysis, capital market conditions will remain in 2009 is projected to grow, but not the peak of achievement in 2008 with the index reached 2830. It is very difficult to hoist the index on the level with the consideration. First, a number of investors still wait and see until the condition is completely normal and conducive. Second, with the interest rate that banks and savings guarantee package reached Rp2 billion or 20 times from the previous policy, encouraging some investors to switch funds to banks that are more certain and secure. Third, the year 2009 will be held towards the end of the election year, usually the capital market will be waiting if the election goes smoothly and peacefully to the new government, because if not, the shock will occur far more effect on the capital markets.

Until now, capital market conditions are still not stable. Where, stock prices, shares are still pro-fluctuation. So, contribution needed to keep from the public to believe the economic stimulus package released and to prevent speculation against the currency in the country.





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